Special Election Edition: Coalition Building, Rule 2 – Win or Lose, Graciously

Chances are 50-50 that “your guy” is going to lose tomorrow.

Not literally, but let’s get real here. Anyone who tells you they know definitively how tomorrow’s general election will turn out is, more than likely, a shyster. Innumerable variables remain. At this point, we are predicting the outcome of an election based on a gut feeling – regardless of how well informed.

I’m confident in saying that because we all saw how it went down in 2016.

What we do know: someone will win, someone will lose, and you still have to advance your agenda thereafter.

HOW IT COULD GO DOWN

I’ll go ahead and put my own wager out there – with the caveat that I claim no special insight, and am prepared to be wrong. Therefore, after doling out such significant equivocation, I’ll go ahead and handicap the election in favor of a re-election of President Trump.

His victory path runs through the middle of the country where he is surging late. With so much discussion this year of absentee balloting and increased turnouts in early voting, analysts continue to ignore that both parties are cannibalizing their election day turnout for those early votes. I think this late surge is likely to decide Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania in President Trump’s favor.

To get in the weeds – and sticking to Ohio – there are more than 1 million voters who went to the polls in 2016 and 2018 who have not voted early or requested an absentee ballot. Of those million+ voters, a significant edge is held by the GOP.

Significantly absent from this election has been a sense of energy on the side of Vice President Biden despite his credentials and a lifetime of service to his nation. The languid nature of the campaign is difficult for me to capture as a “quiet majority.”

BUT WHAT DOES IT REALLY MATTER?

Here’s the rub. No matter what happens in tomorrow’s election, and regardless of how long it takes for results to finalize, about half of the country will be inconsolable, and the other half will be exuberant.

Win or lose, you’ll have to get back to the advocacy game quickly. You’ll have new members of state and federal delegations to engage. You’ll have advocates to thank and begin educating rapidly. And you’ll have a political action plan to begin developing.

Through November, I plan on highlighting some of these activities in regular posts. I hope we’ll have a broader conversation about how to be successful in whatever environment develops in the next 24 hours (assuming results get tabulated efficiently). I hope you’ll check back in for those posts and share your thoughts as we go along.

THE BEST PATH FORWARD

Professional advocates have trained to detach themselves from the results of any particular election. It’s much harder for activists and volunteers to do so – especially if your team comes up short. So, I’ll share some advice from our 16th President who, as you know, dealt with a special level of national division.

Do I not destroy my enemies when I make them my friends?’

Abraham Lincoln

We are inclined to think of Lincoln addressing the rift in the Union – neglecting the importance of the bridge building he had to do within his own political party. The early Republican party, after all, was a broad, diverse coalition. Several factions vied for the nomination, and Lincoln came out on top despite political giants standing in his way. But did he cast those giants to the side? Hardly – no, he built them into his cabinet.

There’s a lesson in that nugget for us as advocates. Chances are, our volunteers come from varied political paradigms. You owe it to your agenda to put a check on your own view of this election. Regardless of who wins, it’s already in the rearview mirror.

Starting right now, not waiting for the results, show grace to your team. Show grace to candidates in contested races – half of whom won’t win. Show grace, warmth, and value to those you’ll need in the next session of congress, your state legislature, or city council meeting. Find ways to re-engage them as part of your team.

We owe it to our own causes to realize that elections are finite, but advocacy is an infinite game – and one we have to keep playing regardless of one cycle. Win or lose, graciously.

SO WHAT DO YOU THINK?

I’d love to hear your predictions. Comment below, but keep it civil! This blog is NOT about politics, it’s about advocacy – so, if you want to avoid a prediction, maybe share what you are doing to prepare for the various environments that will develop from the results. Regardless, I’d like to hear from you! How are you planning on being part of what’s possible after tomorrow?