Constituency of One

In yet another bizarre twist, real life politics is once again imitating art. Yesterday, talks about the Build Back Better Act derailed in Congress with the announcement that West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin would not support the legislation as currently written. If I wasn’t paying attention, I would have mistaken the entire day for an episode of The West Wing.

For those watching the progress on this bill, yesterday’s news shouldn’t have been a surprise. Senator Manchin’s messaging has been consistent from the beginning. He’s wanted the Congress to pursue these proposals through regular order and earn Republican buy-in through the committee process.

That’s not an unreasonable stance – but it is one that has him squarely in the crosshairs of some in his party. Such procedural demands would force the negotiators to reach a 60 vote majority instead of a preferred simple majority route available through budget reconciliation.

Here’s the problem: threats and pressure aren’t the way to work with the only statewide Democrat officeholder in the Mountaineer state. That’s a big mistake – especially at a point when West Virginia Republicans have taken a lead in voter registrations in the state, their first time doing so since 1932.

Yes, you read that right. As recently as 2018 Democrats still held a registration advantage in West Virginia, despite Donald Trump winning the state by 42 points in 2016. Now, that tactical advantage has been erased – and Joe Manchin looks a lot like a one-off character from my favorite show.

I present to you, season 5, episode 5 of The West Wing – Constituency of One. In that episode, White House staffer Josh Lyman calls an audible on how to pressure a fictional Idaho Democrat into supporting a key piece of President Bartlet’s agenda. By the end of the episode, the play falls apart around Josh and the targeted Senator leaves the Democrat party. More than just egg on his face, the professional and political fallout from this move sets up Josh Lyman’s eventual departure from the White House.

Now, watch this quick clip from some of the coverage of Senator Manchin yesterday.

“This is staff. And they drove some things, and they put some things out that were absolutely inexcusable.”

Senator Joe Manchin

That quote sounds an awful lot like someone’s audible play call falling apart around them.

I don’t think Senator Joe Manchin will leave the Democrat party, and that shouldn’t be your takeaway from today’s post. What I do think is that he cares deeply about the future of the party of FDR and the New Deal. The same party that no longer holds a tactical advantage – like, ahem, voter registration – in a state that used to run reliably blue.

Say what you want about the Senator from West Virginia, but from my outsider vantage point he’s operating with an infinite mindset. It’s not about winning one piece of legislation, but rather working to build an alternate proposal that can draw support across the partisan divide. That may not be sexy enough for some, but the practice has a track record of delivering substantive measures with sufficient public support to outlive a given political moment. Those kind of wins are the stuff of legacy building.

Unfortunately for the administration, staff are seemingly more concerned about a finite, short term victory than building the future of their party. That mindset won’t serve them well in the long run.

I have a feeling Joe Manchin is on the right path, and his party would do well to listen a little more, and mock a little less. With congressional retirements, a lagging economy, the looming threat of interest rate hikes, and a third year of COVID in the making, Democrat leaders and staff alike would do well to look beyond the finite moment and consider the position of their party beyond the 2022 midterm election.

Joe Manchin seems to be doing so, and that makes him an incredibly valuable constituency of one.