In a little over two months, Ohioans will vote to determine the major party candidates who will compete this fall to replace US Senator Rob Portman. Right now, they’re all on the intra-party grassroots circuits, scrambling to earn votes, donations, and endorsements. While the candidates rack up road miles, they’re wondering about the same thing we are: who’s going to win this thing?
Well, just yesterday, Rob Portman broke his silence and endorsed a candidate – aiming to tip the balance within a large, and competitive crowd of candidates. During any other time in Ohio politics, the endorsement of your predecessor would weigh heavily on the outcome of any race. That’s not necessarily the case in the era of former President Trump.
I want to take you back to just last year – and another unique special election right here in Ohio – one that followed a very similar track.
Last year, Ohio’s 11th and 15th districts were seeking new members to fulfill the remainder of the current term after incumbents left office early. The 15th, in particular, bears a striking resemblance to what we’re seeing now. Here are the big factors.
Red Wave
Democrats in Ohio are feeling the heat. With plummeting polling, and a general sense of listlessness within the country, they (and most political pundits) are calling for a red wave this fall. Democrats have told me privately “we’re going to get creamed”. With Ohio’s recent electoral track record, they’re likely to be right.
Now, as in the race for OH-15 last year, there’s a level of presumption that whoever wins the Republican nomination will carry the seat in the fall. That pressure means the Republican candidates are under a great deal of scrutiny. And there are two camps developing.
Competing Visions
Those separate camps revolve around one really big endorsement: Donald Trump’s. President Trump’s fundraising to date puts him in a place of incredible influence. He can take a candidate from relative obscurity, to elective office, in rapid succession because he has the resources to do so.
But not everyone is aiming for his endorsement. At least one candidate in the race is differentiating himself from 45 and the other candidates. And that’s not necessarily a bad move, because…
It’s Still a Big Field
With so many in the ring, each candidate is gunning for the slightest edge over their opponents. A big field means a small minority of voters can decide who wins the nomination. Last year, the eventual nominee in the 15th benefited heavily from a split vote amongst 10 candidates. In that race, only 37% of the vote ultimately went to the winner, propelled soundly by the resources of the Trump camp. But that means nearly 2/3 of that heavily Republican leaning district went a different way.
This time, though, it’s not establishment types crowding the field. Of the 5 serious candidates remaining in the race, 4 are heavily pursuing the Trump endorsement. Rumors are flying about who will receive it and whether it will come in hours, days or weeks. If some of those rumors are true, Rob Portman’s endorsement may not carry weight for much longer.
The Deciding Factor?
For a Donald Trump supported nominee to run away with this race though, there has to be one key difference from OH-15 in 2021: the Trump leaning herd will have to thin.
Love him or hate him, 45 should never be underestimated. He and his team know a divided field, with multiple players working to earn the support of the Trump coalition, provides a window for an alternative to be successful. May 3rd, 2022 could just see a historical flip compared to the events of the 2021 show in southern and central Ohio.
From my view, the chances of that compound because of one last X factor.
The Top of the Ticket
As important as this race for the US senate is, it’s actually not the biggest draw in an Ohio mid-term election. No, that honor belongs to our other statewide candidates. And Mike DeWine draws a different coalition.
Without a presidential race, and the swollen voter rolls that accompany it, this race really belongs to those who are likely to show up. It’s a game centered on turnout – getting real people to vote, not just answer polling questions. That all takes resources: money and logistics. It will also require getting the attention of an exhausted public who are finally seeing light at the end of the COVID tunnel.
With mask mandates on the decline, and “normalcy” barreling at us, candidates from all corners will struggle with turnout this year. It’s likely a lot of folks will wake up on May 3rd not knowing they have a civic duty to perform. Even in the Buckeye state, with all our bluster, we are still merely human. Turning folks out on Election Day, and chasing absentee ballot requests to sway the double digit percentage of undecideds remains king in Ohio’s retail politics.
These are some of the big factors I’m watching in this race. It will be very telling who doubles down when, and if, we do see an endorsement out of Mar-a-Lago. That could be the real test of the former President’s influence moving forward. If the crowded field doesn’t thin at his urging, the race really does stay anyone’s game to win.
Say what you want about my home state, but we keep it interesting.
Part of the Possible 