The next 6 months of American politics are somewhat…well…predictable. It’s silly season after all.
Midterm elections have already shaped the conversations in local communities across the country. State and federal legislators are back in their home districts, engaging in party primaries. With that comes the typical us versus them posturing as both run toward their respective bases.
Social issues dominate the conversation – those deeply personal issues that both galvanize and mobilize supporters. At the same time, the heightened attention to these issues will drive opposing stakeholders into the public debate in fractious ways. That visibility and friction historically means we just won’t see much real movement on big policy.
With few exceptions, there is just not likely to be real juice behind any sweeping changes. The appetite just usually isn’t there for big bites at the apple. If that’s the case in 2022, what can we expect to see between now and early November?
We won’t be “building back better”…kind of
Over the last two months, the Biden administration has had its hands full. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has driven the focus from domestic to foreign policy. Necessarily, that’s left congressional Democrats hungry for a swing of the pendulum back to domestic issues. In short, they want to deliver some of their national agenda while they can – and while voters are paying attention – to help soften the blow of what most are expecting to be a pretty devastating general election.
But even with that insistence from congressional leaders, they just don’t have the sure votes to pass sweeping reforms like the stalled Build Back Better Act. It’s just too damn big for them to garner the support they’ll need with the narrowest of margins in the Senate.
What we can expect, and advocates should prepare for, is a strategy that breaks key components of that legislation out in a series of small, maybe even a bit easier to swallow, wins in the House of Representatives that will set up a series of close votes in the US Senate.
One of these key issues to watch is in the realm of tax policy. There were a LOT of unpopular proposals tucked away within Build Back Better as a series of “pay-fors” that would allow Democrats to offset some of the overall cost of that massive bill. Regardless of what they could accomplish through appropriations, a significant portion of these tax measures would fundamentally alter the structure of our tax code and cause significant shifts in how businesses will have to plan for the future.
Because they won’t be wrapped into, or buried in, a larger package many of these proposals will be dead on arrival in the Senate. But they’ll be important moral causes for embattled Democrats to champion back home to get out the vote in suburban swing districts. But these aren’t the only “easy wins” we may see pursued.
The Shortsighted Attack on the Gas Tax
The fairest forms of taxation in America directly tie a point of taxation to a specific service provided through that revenue. The purest form of that, in my opinion, is the gas tax. As much as I bemoan taxes, this direct service tax correlates to one’s usage of a public good and is relatively fair. More importantly, it’s a valuable tool at the federal AND state levels to fund infrastructure in a fiscally responsible way.
And it’s under attack.
With the spike in gas prices over the last few months, we’ve seen Republicans return to familiar stomping grounds with calls to fully eliminate the gas tax in some states. I would caution my fellow Republicans to shut this effort down.
Now, more than ever, our friends and neighbors are feeling the pain of stretched supply lines. We know our infrastructure is struggling to keep pace with demand. Despite the administration’s success in rolling out a massive infrastructure bill last year, those dollars will take time to move through the system to the local communities that need them. Eliminating the gas tax, while popular to voters at the pump, cuts our ability to govern effectively at the knees.
I’m for small government, but I want that government to be effective in administering public goods. When we appeal to the “easy win” we often ignore the second and third order effects of those decisions. Eliminating the gas tax now, even temporarily, is a shortsighted idea. It’s also an unnecessary one when alternative answers exist.
Look to Late November
At some point, we have to acknowledge that the work of governance never stops – despite the theatrics of silly season. Both major parties are going to see their agendas stymied over the coming months. There will be some fireworks. There will be some controversy. But there will be very little in the way of big action.
Instead, both sides will find themselves pursuing base hits – the types of wins (symbolic though they may be) that help them run invigorated campaigns through November. But those base hits will leave a lot of innings to be played during the lame duck session of Congress in November and December.
Advocates – experienced and novice alike – need to be reading the tea leaves in the coming months to figure out just what could happen in that window of time. Lame duck can be just that, very lame. Or, it can be spun into an extreme level of frenetic activity – activity that could have some sweeping proposals launched, and passed, before we even finish catching our breath from the election cycle.
Why? Because if what everyone thinks will happen actually does, that will be the last window for a stampede of legislation that could carry the administration’s agenda forward into the 2024 Presidential cycle. And at that point, there will be nothing left for national Democrats to lose by forcing unpopular votes.
Small, easy wins right now will distract us. We have to be wary of them from both parties. They will invariably lead to a need for game winning grand slams in November and December. As we continue to engage with elected officials, it’s important to balance the need to help them deliver base hits AND think through which just aren’t the right fit in the long term.
Part of the Possible 