“So, NASA’s OSF tells us that the 30th Space Wing at Vandenberg Air Force Base believes that a Chinese satellite has fallen out of its orbital… flight plan. The last detection the 30th had placed it in what they call a “degrading orbital path” and it’s now dropped off their radar, suggesting it’s begun a rapid fall towards the Earth’s atmosphere.”
Did I rip that quote straight from today’s news?
No. That’s pulled from the script of “The Fall’s Gonna Kill You”, Season 2, Episode 20 of the West Wing that aired on May 2, 2001.
But I can understand your confusion, because almost 20 years to the day a Chinese rocket core is in a degrading orbit, and will soon endure an uncontrolled descent back into the atmosphere. Here’s the kicker – we don’t really know where it will land but take this as the odds on favorite:
“The nonprofit Aerospace Corp. expects the debris to hit the Pacific near the Equator after passing over eastern U.S. cities. Its orbit covers a swath of the planet from New Zealand to Newfoundland.” – ABC News.
What happened you ask? The Chinese National Space Administration is working to build their own national space station, opting to establish a sovereign presence separate from the multinational ISS. Their first such station, Tiangong-1 hurtled back to Earth in 2016, and Tiangong-2 was successfully consumed by the atmosphere in 2019.
On April 29th of this year, the main module of the next Chinese space station, Tianhe was launched aboard a Long March-5B rocket. That rocket’s core stage is now dazzling radar observers everywhere as folks fill out their wagers on a final touchdown location for whatever parts of the rocket survive re-entry.
Now, I’m not freaking out. The percentages are definitely on our side that this will likely not land on anyone’s front porch. BUT I AM FREAKING OUT ABOUT HOW CLOSELY THE STORY LINE TRACKS WITH THIS WEST WING EPISODE.
When you move further through the dialogue of that episode, the character Donna Moss is baffled by the lack of information available. Throughout the rest of the episode, she peppers fellow staffers with information about the falling satellite and questions about what should be done. She’s dealing with the anxiety of the unknown. And worse in her mind, despite the cataclysmic potential of an impact, all the White House received from DOD/NASA was a fax.
Right now, across the globe, those watching the sky are dealing with the same because they also don’t have all the data. According to the same ABC News story above, at the time I’m writing this, the Chinese National Space Agency literally isn’t picking up the phone.
I can only imagine the staff conversations in the White House communications office about this in the last few days. Do you think any of them remember this particular episode as fondly as I do? In case they (or you) don’t, here’s a cut of Donna’s scenes from the episode:
Anyway, DOD is currently projecting Saturday as the likely date of final re-entry. Keep your eyes on the skies. You may get an unforgettable show…you know, before it kills you.
Part of the Possible 