So, What’s Next?

For two dreadfully long weeks, Americans have wrestled with the events unfolding in Afghanistan – punctuated by the tragic loss of service members at the Kabul airport. But with the final American planes taking to the skies, many of us are left wondering: what’s next?

There’s still a great deal of story left to be written in this particular volume of Afghan history. Reprisals are ramping up. Musicians and YouTubers have already fallen prey. Some Americans remain in country – with limited options to leave.

But what happens back here at home? If I’m tapping into my realism, sadly I have to say “not much” and maybe “more of the same.”

Sure, Republicans and Democrats alike have called for investigations into the withdraw planning. I even think they mean it when they say they want answers. But with the final C-17s departing Afghan airspace, we’re about to see our national attention span shift to the next challenge. The clock is ticking as the sense of urgency fades.

Reeling from inflation, the withdraw, and now hurricane Ida, the Biden administration is in (what we Marines would call) the horns of a dilemma.

Elections come quickly. Two years is the blink of an eye in politics. And the historical averages are already stacked against congressional Democrats. Check out this Forbes piece from 2018 for reference.

So what can we expect from the administration? The strategy could be pretty straightforward:

1) a show of compliance toward congressional oversight hearings on the Afghan crisis; 2) a political-capital intensive push on the infrastructure deal and the $3.5 Trillion budget reconciliation package this fall; 3) a non-legislative nod to shore up base support through regulatory moves that meet campaign priorities (e.g. climate regulation) in early Q1 2022; and 4) a shift to economic messaging as early as February 2022.

Regardless of the public clamor we will see over the next month, both major parties are focusing in on the midterms. The administration will start the process of shifting the narrative as quickly as they can. Simultaneously we will see congressional Republicans on the attack to keep a national security drum beat alive.

(But I’d caution Republicans not to repeat the mistakes they made by over politicizing the Benghazi tragedy. They also have an economic message to prepare for the midterms).

There’s at least some reason informing my speculation on the political strategy above. Regardless of the rhetoric, elections boil down to whether the average voter feels safe and able to make a buck. Right now, those decks are stacked against the administration and congressional Democrats.

Despite those challenges though, there’s a lot of poker left to play. I’ll be interested to see if my prediction holds up – I certainly don’t claim any special clairvoyance. And if I’m being honest, I really want to hear what you think. So, from your view, what’s next?