Burning Capital

My prediction from a week and a half ago is progressing nicely. If you recall the post from last Tuesday (So, What’s Next?), I laid out four expectations I had for the next several months in American politics. One is being ramped up as I write this piece.

Right now, the Biden administration is running wild to move past the crises of August and regain solid footing ahead of a tense year that promises to be consumed by the mid-term elections. What does that look like in reality? Well, the messaging has changed. There’s a new urgency to the proposed infrastructure bill as well as a $3.5 Trillion budget reconciliation package. But in addition to the renewed urgency, the very language they are using has shifted as well.

Enter the populists

The development isn’t surprising in the least. As I wrote last Tuesday, the infrastructures of both major parties are already on an election footing. That means simplifying messages and boiling down nuanced policy to bumper sticker positions. This kind of politics is what riles and reinforces the base. So what’s the administration doing to work into that posture?

Well, first and foremost, the sales pitch to moderates is done. Congressional leadership and the administration are working feverishly to advance committee work on these bills and push their consideration ahead of some key calendar deadlines. In addition to that work, you see the discussion around that work being driven to a state of a “simple” yes/no prospect for the Democrat majority. Here’s a great take on this from CNN that I think you should read: White House moves to sharper, populist message to keep Democrats together in make-or-break agenda moment.

That CNN piece explains the why and the how of the messaging shift. But what does that mean for advocacy organizations?

Three Expectations

First – opportunities to influence and change the reconciliation package are shrinking. A shift away from nuance signals a need to solidify the agreement.

Second, the administration will undoubtedly have less capacity after the agreement to push major legislative packages. Quite literally, they’re burning their (political) capital.

Which sets up the third expectation: with limited legislative influence in the coming year, watch for a marked shift toward utilizing regulatory processes to advance the agenda.

Thanks to the Administrative Procedures Act of 1974, we’ve been on a long slow glide path toward greater regulatory power within the fourth branch of government: the agency driven bureaucracy. When any administration has expended its legislative influence, you can reasonably expect a shift toward executive orders and regulatory decisions to advance agendas without the nuisance of building popular support.

Like I said last Tuesday, I expect that effort to ramp up and that we will see significant regulatory decisions begin rolling out in the beginning quarter of 2022. Advocacy organizations that aren’t watching regulatory proposals RIGHT NOW are already behind the power curve.

That makes my advice to advocacy organizations is pretty straightforward: it’s time to get in the weeds on regulations.gov.