On Tuesday evening, Ohio conducted its primary election for Federal and Statewide offices. If you missed the memo about the election, you weren’t alone. There were a great many folks confused about just what’s happening in our primary due to the ongoing battle over legislative districts maps. But that’s a post for another day.
Now that the results are in, there are some key takeaways that we should all keep in mind as we move toward the November General Election. Since there weren’t many points of friction in the Democrat races, this post is I’ll focus on the Republican campaigns.
Trump Has Juice
Love him or hate him, it’s important to acknowledge the sizable impact President Trump’s endorsement of J.D. Vance had on the final outcome of the US Senate primary. With a large, split field of candidates still on the ballot, his endorsement took Vance from the back of the pack to the lead dog overnight. That’s a lot of sway in a year when electorate turnout will be difficult to predict.
His impact on this race shows a pattern in Ohio. Similar to the special elections in 2018 and 2020 for House races in the 12th and 15th districts, this strategy once again paid off in a big way. It also gives 45 a great deal of leverage as he continues to build his reputation as long maker.
Democrats would be well served to set aside scoffing at 45 for the time being. Underestimating his ability to galvanize his base will give Vance a lot of steam. Dismissing his impact on the race, and once again underestimating him, will make an already tough election cycle all that much harder.
Mike DeWine Doesn’t Need Juice
There was a great deal of speculation over Mike DeWine’s support among Republicans heading into Tuesday. While polls never showed him as seriously threatened by his two opponents, the Republican gubernatorial battle was called earlier than many expected. And while that is notable, this is the rest of the story:

If you look at total turnout between Republicans and Democrats, Republicans are showing a big lead in the enthusiasm game. There could be a lot of factors at play, but in the moment right now, Democrats will need their own galvanizing force to drive reliable voters to the polls in November. Whether the explosion of commentary around abortion – spurred by the recently leaked Supreme Court documents – will be enough of a force is yet to be determined.
With a lagging economy and a stalled agenda, I think it’d be a drastic mistake to turn the next 6 months into a one issue agenda. Base hits would go a long way in sustaining the grassroots activists Democrats will need to drive registration and get out the vote efforts in the fall.
Don’t Discount Authenticity
Ohioans still value known quantities. Tim Ryan is a fairly well known quantity – and he’s deeply authentic with real people. Even though his Presidential campaign never caught traction in 2020, his style will continue to resonate with a lot of Buckeyes.
Much like Sherrod Brown, Tim Ryan knows how to relate to real people. Republicans have a tougher opponent than they’d like to admit. He’s a shoe-leather politician. He’ll work damn hard and come across as one hundred percent authentic in just about every setting.
If he can keep his campaign a multi-issue affair, he’s going to make it a helluva fight. Ultimately, that may still not be enough in this environment. But Vance had better come ready to work.
A Parting Thought
Advocates in Ohio have a tough few months ahead. As we try to read the tea leaves, we also must balance the reality that we STILL don’t know the legislative districts for our state’s General Assembly. There will be a ton of confusion among voters and volunteer advocates well into the fall.
If you are passionate about a given issue – really, any issue – it’s time to get connected to a sound advocacy organization. They will help you navigate the confusing seas ahead. They’ll also be able to help you stay on top of the need to vote in the August special primary election for state legislative races. All in all, now is a great time to join an advocacy organization.

