Part of the Possible

5 Things You Should Know About Government Shutdowns

In the past 10 years, our federal government has endured a government shutdown on three separate occasions (disclaimer: I worked for members of Congress through all three). As we rapidly approach September 30th, we face the very real prospect of another shutdown in 2021 – and that’s not me trying to be hyperbolic.

Through the lens of the gamesmanship on display in current news coverage, we seem to be approaching an all too familiar impasse. Federal spending for the coming year faces a September 30th deadline that congressional Democrats are eager to meet – attempting to avoid a SNAFU that could embarrassingly derail their prospects in the 2022 midterm elections. Simultaneously, congressional Republicans are balking at the prospect of passing a suspension of the national debt limit which may be reached in mid-October.

This week, in order to force the issue, majority leadership in Congress is calling for the debt limit increase to be joined with federal spending legislation. Some are describing the move as a “dare” to Republicans, hoping to saddle the minority party with fault in the case of a shutdown.

With all of that typical DC drama unfolding before us, it’s often difficult to boil down just what it really means for those of us not working in the halls of Congress. How will this impact us? What will it mean for our advocacy organizations? Why should I care?

If you’re looking for clarity on the topic, here are the top 5 things to know about shutdowns:

1. Yes, Members of Congress will still get paid.

You’re about to see quite a few memes running around the internet about Congress making sure they still get their own salary even if the government shuts down. The truth is, they don’t really have much say in the matter. Congressional pay is broadly protected under Article 1, Section 6 of the Constitution – even at times when their own disagreements fail to fund the rest of the government. And as much as that may rub us the wrong way, you’ll have to take it up with James Madison and the amendment process if you want to change it. Doing so may just provide the incentive needed to overcome the invective in D.C.

2. No, The Agencies Won’t be Answering Their Phones or Emails (Mostly).

This is the most challenging impact for those in need of government services during a shutdown. Non-essential employees are literally required to turn in their government devices during a furlough. While they are furloughed, they cannot address the work they would normally do – including processing your passports. If you are in need of a critical service from a government agency, your options for help will be extremely limited – even through your Representative’s office. Yep, you guessed it, staff for members of congress are not all counted as “essential” employees. So, get busy and send your urgent paperwork in now.

3. No, We Don’t Save Money During a Shutdown

Just because the government doesn’t spend during a shutdown, doesn’t mean we save money. In large measure, it’s more expensive for the broader economy if a shutdown occurs. Economic activity is decreased or delayed, and in recent occurrences we’ve lost out on billions of dollars in GDP. If you don’t believe me, take it from the Congressional Budget Office.

4. Your Advocacy Efforts Will Come to a Standstill

Forget your agenda. There’s no air left in the room during a shutdown. All other, non-essential legislation comes to a screeching halt. Congress won’t be looking to solve other problems, the topics they do cover will be all budgeting, all the time. That means if we hit the September 30th deadline without a spending package, you will have to adjust your strategy. Position your volunteers to call for action on the budget or continuing resolution so they remain primed for action after the storm. You can continue to help volunteer advocates feel connected to the process AND keep them motivated to get back to the hard work after the impasse.

5. No Matter What: Defaulting on Our Debt is MUCH WORSE Than a Shutdown

The Chair of the Federal Reserve has called the prospect catastrophic. If the federal government signals to the world that we are unable, or unwilling, to honor our debts, the foundation of modern money systems will erode. The reality of such a failure is so grim that Congress has come together continuously to pass such measures in a bi-partisan manner. So, what if they don’t this time? Consumers will face higher interest rates, investors of all kinds will confront crashing markets, and the long economic hardship of COVID-19 could become a fond memory for many.

You may be asking: why are we even playing with this fire? Well, the two biggest chips to play in Congress are spending plans and debt limits. They are incredible tools to rein in extreme proposals from your opponents – if handled properly.

With the ever growing expenditures of the Federal government, this kind of gamesmanship isn’t going anywhere. We seem to face credit ceilings all the more frequently when we spend like drunken sailors (apologies to drunken sailors everywhere). The Budget cycle never really stops. Responsibility in citizenship needs to occur long before these dramatic clashes.

It’s time for the grown ups to weigh in – and that means citizen lobbying. Instead of calls for ideological purity, we should be calling on our elected representatives to work toward solutions every day. Otherwise, we’ll continue to face these hard realities.

People First

Today I’m thrilled to welcome a close friend who’s sharing his first post on Part of the Possible. Tyler Fehrman is a proud girl dad, passionate advocate, and believer in people. He considers helping individuals – learning their stories, building relationships, and finding common ground – his sole purpose in life. His background is in public service and clean energy.

Tyler has a simple reminder for would-be advocates today: don’t forget the people behind your issues. I hope you’ll consider commenting on today’s post and letting Tyler know what you think by leaving a comment! – LC

Tyler is a clean energy advocate from central Ohio. Connect with him on LinkedIn.

For as long as I can remember, I wanted to be involved in public service somehow – though, I may not have recognized the driver at first. Most kids my age told folks they wanted to be a cowboy, an astronaut, a super hero, or a rock star. Not me, though – I was the odd one. When asked, I told people “I want to be a politician.”

Most of us shudder at that word these days, as “politicians” are considered an above-ground appendage of the seedy underbelly of the darker parts of the world – fraught with scandal and corruption, seen as snake oil salesmen in ivory halls. As I grew, that changed – I went from wanting to be a “politician” to wanting to be, when I learned the more appropriate term, a public servant. This has made all the difference.

Since I began my career, I have had the privilege to work in various government agencies and private organizations that have all had a singular mission: to serve people. Seeing the inner-working of public policy and administration, learning the niche audiences served by various organizations, and witnessing firsthand the struggles of people I likely never would have encountered otherwise opened my eyes to a much bigger, more complex world – one far larger than the world heralded by media outlets and “politicians” that fits into shiny, ideological boxes.

A dear friend of mine used to constantly repeat the line from the Dylan Thomas poem that reads: “rage, rage against the dying of the light” – it was his anthem, used to guide and direct his work. He explained how he understood it to me once, and it – in a way – became mine before being later distilled into a much-simplified version that still guides me today.

To “rage, rage against the dying of the light” was a charge to keep – a call to wage war against all of the things seeking to distract us from our true mission, a command to fight for what is right and beautiful and good in the world no matter the odds. This phrase has been, as I mentioned, distilled for me – to a simple, two-word adage: People First.

In today’s world we are constantly faced with division – whether it be via politics, religion, simple opinion, or any number of other much smaller things. Our culture seems to thrive on outrage and gravitate towards moving further apart, instead of coming together. It seems as though not many are as committed to “rage, rage against the dying of the light.”

Now, I don’t want to be the typical post – crying for “togetherness”…that’s something you can read anywhere, any time. However, I do want to encourage all of us to move towards a passion for putting people first. Regardless of your line of work – whether it be advocacy, public administration, car sales, labor, political campaigns, or something entirely different – our chief purpose in the world, I truly believe, is to serve others.

For those of us inside the public policy world, how could there be another purpose? All of politics and policy is centered on people – how it affects their daily lives, how it impacts their business, how it matches their view of the world, and how it creates progress for the future. Without people, there would be no need for public policy – or public servants to implement it.

If we really want to be successful inside the advocacy space, we must focus on putting people first. If you’re advocating for a diversified power grid (like me), advocate for a diversified power grid to meet the needs of communities and impact the lives of those who live in them – people first. If you’re advocating on behalf of sentencing and criminal justice reform, do so by focusing on the countless stories of individuals wrongly incarcerated – people first. If it’s lower taxes, immigration, trade unions, education, vehicle electrification, or conservation you advocate for, do it in a way that places the impetus on positively affecting the lives of individuals and telling their stories – once again, people first.

Instead of serving political parties and ideologies – like so many of our counterparts do – and chasing the almighty dollar, let’s focus on how what we do each and every day impacts the daily lives of those within our spheres, whether they’re on our side or not. We all want to achieve great things – and, I’m here to tell you that those “great things” are best achieved when we focus on serving others, impacting and changing lives, and committing ourselves to “rage, rage against the dying of the light.”

Want to feel genuinely good about what you do, and remain passionate about the cause you champion? Start by putting People First.

3 Advocacy Basics You Can Do, Right Now

There seems to be a whole lot of activity happening in the normally quiet, restful period known as August “recess”. I use quiet and restful loosely here, because it’s just a matter of perspective. From the view point of district staff for members of congress it’s a time to dread the frenetic activity that ensues when all of Congress returns home between August and early September.

But this year, we seemed to be suffering the recess that never was. In the middle of August, it became clear that congressional leadership was going to call for ramped up committee work to dive into the topics you’re probably hearing about in the news right now: infrastructure spending and a $3.5 trillion spending package being pushed by the administration. That committee work has drawn members of Congress back to DC, sucked in by the black hole of faux urgency.

For would-be advocates stuck in the middle of all of this busy-ness, it can seem daunting to participate in the discussion (especially when you’re talking unfathomable levels of spending). The complexity of the proposals working their way through the Capitol could deter the stoutest activists within your organizations. When you add in the rushed nature of the negotiations, those outside the room are likely feeling their heads spin until they willingly throw up their hands and just walk away.

So, how can we position volunteer advocates, both the grassroots and grass tops to succeed right now? Well, per the usual, it’s back to the basics.

Put First Things First – Help Your Volunteers Tell a Story

Understanding that infrastructure, budget reconciliation, and the Afghanistan inquiry are sucking all the air out of DC, position your advocates to speak to singular issues within those topics as necessary. Reinforce to them that they aren’t expected to be experts on every section of the legislation – but that they can provide an impactful story on the issues that hit closest to home.

The most important priority for any advocate isn’t to be an expert on all things, rather an expert in their own field. Most of those willing to participate in advocacy understand they won’t always win – but they can always be a part of the action. The easiest way for them to do so is to share what they expect these proposals would cause to happen in their own lives. Help them back it up with stats and then get out of the way of their storytelling.

Show Up in Person – Help Get Them in the Door

Despite the committee activity through the week, members of Congress are still hosting and participating in events back home. With travel and meeting restrictions still encumbering citizen lobbying in DC, now is the prime time for engaging in events happening in your own community. Why? Well, frankly, the elected officials have been on a starvation diet of public exposure for just as long as the rest of us. Help your volunteer advocates fulfill that need for their representatives.

Right now, members of congress are likely working to fill their calendars when they’re back home in October so they can drum up support for the actions they’ll take on these big proposals in the next few months. They’ll be meeting with community organizations, not-for-profit enterprises, and economic development entities. For instance, if you’re in the business community and want to be an engaged advocate, now is the time to be leaning into your trade association and the local chamber of commerce. Both of those types of entities can help place you advantageously in front of your elected officials.

As Always, Be Kind – Find a Way to Say Thank You

When I talk about becoming brilliant in the basics, I almost always land on the importance of gratitude. Yes, gratitude. Even in politics.

I’ve been on the opposite side from advocates on a whole host of issues before. As a congressional staffer, I came to see a lot of familiar faces that would participate in advocacy across diverse causes. The most successful of those advocates cultivated a culture within their circles that brought positivity to the discussion. The most impactful found ways to celebrate the times where the elected official’s actions overlapped with their interests.

Repeat this to yourself: Even the staunchest of my opponents is still a human, deserving of dignity and respect.

Unfortunately we ignore that a great deal in the middle of heated debates. If you take the time, in the middle of our current “urgent” debate, you’ll probably find a way to express that respect to the folks you’ll need down the line.

In my own conversations with staffers of late, I can see and hear the strain. They’ve been stretched and frayed. For more than 18 months they’ve navigated a constantly shifting political landscape under restrictions that are hampering citizen participation. And the worst kept secret about our body politic is that citizen participation is coveted.

So we have to fight that urge to retract from the conversation. Now, more than ever, is a time to show up. That’s what you can do, right now – and these three basics will help you do it well.

Burning Capital

My prediction from a week and a half ago is progressing nicely. If you recall the post from last Tuesday (So, What’s Next?), I laid out four expectations I had for the next several months in American politics. One is being ramped up as I write this piece.

Right now, the Biden administration is running wild to move past the crises of August and regain solid footing ahead of a tense year that promises to be consumed by the mid-term elections. What does that look like in reality? Well, the messaging has changed. There’s a new urgency to the proposed infrastructure bill as well as a $3.5 Trillion budget reconciliation package. But in addition to the renewed urgency, the very language they are using has shifted as well.

Enter the populists

The development isn’t surprising in the least. As I wrote last Tuesday, the infrastructures of both major parties are already on an election footing. That means simplifying messages and boiling down nuanced policy to bumper sticker positions. This kind of politics is what riles and reinforces the base. So what’s the administration doing to work into that posture?

Well, first and foremost, the sales pitch to moderates is done. Congressional leadership and the administration are working feverishly to advance committee work on these bills and push their consideration ahead of some key calendar deadlines. In addition to that work, you see the discussion around that work being driven to a state of a “simple” yes/no prospect for the Democrat majority. Here’s a great take on this from CNN that I think you should read: White House moves to sharper, populist message to keep Democrats together in make-or-break agenda moment.

That CNN piece explains the why and the how of the messaging shift. But what does that mean for advocacy organizations?

Three Expectations

First – opportunities to influence and change the reconciliation package are shrinking. A shift away from nuance signals a need to solidify the agreement.

Second, the administration will undoubtedly have less capacity after the agreement to push major legislative packages. Quite literally, they’re burning their (political) capital.

Which sets up the third expectation: with limited legislative influence in the coming year, watch for a marked shift toward utilizing regulatory processes to advance the agenda.

Thanks to the Administrative Procedures Act of 1974, we’ve been on a long slow glide path toward greater regulatory power within the fourth branch of government: the agency driven bureaucracy. When any administration has expended its legislative influence, you can reasonably expect a shift toward executive orders and regulatory decisions to advance agendas without the nuisance of building popular support.

Like I said last Tuesday, I expect that effort to ramp up and that we will see significant regulatory decisions begin rolling out in the beginning quarter of 2022. Advocacy organizations that aren’t watching regulatory proposals RIGHT NOW are already behind the power curve.

That makes my advice to advocacy organizations is pretty straightforward: it’s time to get in the weeds on regulations.gov.

NASA, Corn Farmers, and Saving the World

In my day job, I have the incredible pleasure of working with agricultural producers. American farmers and ranchers are personal heroes of mine. You see, my family sold the farm before I came along – but my dad made sure I was never too far removed from those agrarian roots.

Growing up, every month we’d visit my grandmother who still lived on a property adjacent to the old family grain farm. He’d have me walk the fields and listen to his stories of what it was like as a young man on that farm in the middle of the 20th century. He told me about hard days, short nights, and the stresses and blessings of the business. Little did I know how much those lessons would inform my work in politics down the line.

But at the same time as my dad was trying to keep me grounded, I always seemed to have my head in the stars. Any regular reader of this blog has undoubtedly come across at least one post on NASA and what’s happening in the world of human space flight. Well, I think it’s high time I bring the worlds of astronauts and agronomists together to bring perspective on an issue grabbing a great deal of attention in our national political debates: climate change and greenhouse gas emissions.

Photo Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Over the past two years, an interesting conversation has been crisscrossing the countryside, and being presented as a new opportunity for agricultural producers. Across the US, farmers are being approached to participate in emerging markets that would allow them to sell credits for the carbon their crops sequester over the course of a year. Those credits, in large measure, would be sold as offsets – allowing other industries to pay, in part, for the costs of implementing new practices that allow for additional carbon sequestration in America’s rural communities.

I’ve spent a lot of time on this topic in the past year in particular. Though it started before the Biden administration, the President’s posture on climate policy is certainly pushing the debate further ahead. But, I think for the average person not engaged in these policy discussions, it’s important to know how we got here. And that’s where NASA comes in. <Insert Nerdy Glee Here>.

In the image above, you see a satellite view of North America reflecting data from 2007 to 2011. The fluorescence you see is NOT carbon emissions, but rather a reflection of photosynthetic activity. And for those of us struggling to remember our high school biology classes, that photosynthetic activity is how growing plants absorb the carbon they need to grow and thrive. Better yet, as the plant absorbs the carbon in our atmosphere, it transmits that carbon into the soil, offering an opportunity to sequester it in the long term.

How effective is it? Based on the data backing up the image above, it was found that photosynthesis from the U.S. Corn Belt peaks in July at levels 40 percent greater than those observed in the Amazon. The potential for sequestration in the agronomic cycle is MASSIVE. And we’ve come to realize this, in part, because of the important work performed in terrestrial research at NASA.

When it comes to NASA, most of us think of rocket launches and control rooms. But an incredible amount of NASA’s work is not about reaching further into the cosmos – instead it’s directed back toward understanding, and solving, problems right here on Earth. Since the initial findings about the Corn Belt’s productivity, the team at NASA (and some outside organizations) have invested significant resources into figuring out just where we go from here.

Right now, the political debate has room for these carbon markets – and we can thank Farmers and NASA equally for that development. In the next decade, research at the farm level and on our orbital observatories will push new developments and new advancements. The reason why I don’t live in a state of nihilistic dread about climate change is that I don’t discount the power of American innovation. In just a matter of 15 years we’ve gone from interesting data points to feasible programs. That’s the blink of an eye. I’m excited to see where we land in the next 15 years.

And if I was a betting man, I’d continue to put my money on NASA and Farmers to save the world.

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It’s probably time to expand your definition of community

Do you feel like your organization is on its own in the advocacy realm? If so, take some solace in the knowledge that you’re probably not as alone as you think. Well, at least not in feeling that way.

A few weeks ago I posted a piece focused on some of the barriers that non-profits face in advocacy. At the time, I zeroed in on the internal factors at play in many non-profits: lack of resources and cultural indifference toward political engagement. But as I’m thinking about the challenges for these organizations today, I’m wondering about the external challenges too.

What if you have both the will, and the resources to advocate effectively? What barriers could still be in your way? As I’m pondering the topic, I keep landing on the reality of insularity.

Those who work in the non-profit space share a common attribute: an abundance of passion. Let’s face it, the work is difficult. Without a deep well of fortitude, those in the field wouldn’t last long. But there’s an overlooked shortcoming when it comes to all that passion. Too often it’s laser-focused on the limited scope of that non-profit’s mission and blind to the surrounding political environment.

And that’s no knock against these organizations – it’s an understandable outcropping of their passionate, intensely focused service.

But if I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times: there is room for everyone to participate, and succeed, in advocacy. But you have to be willing to embrace the role of partner by expanding how you define your community.

Within your political action plan you should already be identifying targets to influence. But be honest, are you also thinking through the targets to bring into your fold through coalitions? Building those relationships requires an immense amount of relationship and trust building – both of which require taking responsibility to be in community with others. And yes, that includes those you may disagree with politically.

Are you encouraging your team to serve with other organizations when they ask? Are you joining community groups like the Chamber of Commerce or the Rotary? What about making the immense commitment to serve on another entity’s board of directors? By making these commitments to the broader community, successful advocates can open doors to a network that will exponentially expand their political impact.

Take responsibility to be in community. You’ll find you’re not as isolated as you think, and that network will carry you far.

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So, What’s Next?

For two dreadfully long weeks, Americans have wrestled with the events unfolding in Afghanistan – punctuated by the tragic loss of service members at the Kabul airport. But with the final American planes taking to the skies, many of us are left wondering: what’s next?

There’s still a great deal of story left to be written in this particular volume of Afghan history. Reprisals are ramping up. Musicians and YouTubers have already fallen prey. Some Americans remain in country – with limited options to leave.

But what happens back here at home? If I’m tapping into my realism, sadly I have to say “not much” and maybe “more of the same.”

Sure, Republicans and Democrats alike have called for investigations into the withdraw planning. I even think they mean it when they say they want answers. But with the final C-17s departing Afghan airspace, we’re about to see our national attention span shift to the next challenge. The clock is ticking as the sense of urgency fades.

Reeling from inflation, the withdraw, and now hurricane Ida, the Biden administration is in (what we Marines would call) the horns of a dilemma.

Elections come quickly. Two years is the blink of an eye in politics. And the historical averages are already stacked against congressional Democrats. Check out this Forbes piece from 2018 for reference.

So what can we expect from the administration? The strategy could be pretty straightforward:

1) a show of compliance toward congressional oversight hearings on the Afghan crisis; 2) a political-capital intensive push on the infrastructure deal and the $3.5 Trillion budget reconciliation package this fall; 3) a non-legislative nod to shore up base support through regulatory moves that meet campaign priorities (e.g. climate regulation) in early Q1 2022; and 4) a shift to economic messaging as early as February 2022.

Regardless of the public clamor we will see over the next month, both major parties are focusing in on the midterms. The administration will start the process of shifting the narrative as quickly as they can. Simultaneously we will see congressional Republicans on the attack to keep a national security drum beat alive.

(But I’d caution Republicans not to repeat the mistakes they made by over politicizing the Benghazi tragedy. They also have an economic message to prepare for the midterms).

There’s at least some reason informing my speculation on the political strategy above. Regardless of the rhetoric, elections boil down to whether the average voter feels safe and able to make a buck. Right now, those decks are stacked against the administration and congressional Democrats.

Despite those challenges though, there’s a lot of poker left to play. I’ll be interested to see if my prediction holds up – I certainly don’t claim any special clairvoyance. And if I’m being honest, I really want to hear what you think. So, from your view, what’s next?

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If Not Us, Who?

I know I tend to take a more positive tone in most of my posts, but we are now two weeks into the devastating failure of the Afghanistan evacuation and I’m struggling to find the light. Despite the administration’s efforts to reassure the international community by way of the tens of thousands evacuated so far, the full picture of it all isn’t pretty.

Take this excerpt plucked from Politico:

Source: POLITICO Global Translations, August 25, 2021

You can neither build back better, nor make America great again by refusing the role of leadership in the free world. Those words mean even more to me today than when I wrote them just last week. In the absence of American leadership on the Afghanistan withdraw, the world is struggling to keep pace with the chaos as it unfolds.

The digital data trail laid out in the excerpt above is just the latest shocking reality coming to light. The pitiful strategic planning exhibited over the last several years has failed to account for the technical savvy gained by the Taliban during the preceding two decades. Now, because of that failure, those left behind are at an even greater risk than previously thought.

The worst part is that it didn’t have to be this way, and the French are proving it. If I was in more of a joking mood, I’d make the expected underhanded comment about the proud history of French retreats – but I’m just not there yet. I have to hold back because they executed the most sound withdrawal strategy of them all.

The French began withdrawing Afghan staff as early as May of this year, with only French nationals remaining in their embassy into July. Their thoughtful planning allowed them to protect their most vulnerable Afghan staff and their national security interests.

I find it…difficult…to believe that two consecutive American administrations couldn’t, or wouldn’t, have found a way to do this better.

The Afghan people are facing a grim future. Regardless of the platitudes coming from the Taliban PR department, reports of abuses are already coming out of Afghanistan. Afghans who worked with the international coalition partners are being targeted. United Nations personnel are being told to limit visibility of female staff. The writing is on the wall. We know the next chapter.

As I write this, I’m lying in my toddler’s bed helping her to get to sleep. I find myself torn between gratitude for my own reality and despair for what the future holds for the good people of Afghanistan.

We can feel powerless in moments like this, and maybe we are because the events are already in motion. But there will be more moments ahead – both within this conflict and whatever next generational crisis arises. It’s up to us to set the example for our elected officials. So, if you’re as frustrated as I am, it’s time to practice some introspection.

I think we need to be asking ourselves some meaningful questions. Is it really time for a retreat from the world stage? Or, is it more important than ever for us to be a force for good in a troubled world? And one final question to ponder (maybe the most important): if not us, who?

A Worthy Read for the Moment

A fair amount of time has passed since I added a new recommendation to the Bookshelf. Today, I right that wrong.

I was first introduced to the writing style of Thomas E. Ricks in his study of US Military leadership titled The Generals. Less a history and more of an organizational biography, The Generals tracks the evolution of senior leadership practices in the US Army and Marine Corps from the world wars to present day.

Even years removed from my first read, I find myself returning to his work periodically when I’m thinking through organizational leadership challenges. That’s why, since I first published the Bookshelf page of this site, Ricks has been featured in my little corner of the web. But earlier this month I finally picked up his latest work First Principles, and I think he’s earned another spot on the shelf.

Let me open with a caveat: I disagree with some of the concluding recommendations he shares. That being said, he’s done something rare in studies of our founding generation: he revealed something different to discuss.

I’ve read more books on the founding fathers, and their times, than I should admit. It’s a favored period for this particular idealist. I admire the founding generation – flaws and all – for the optimistic spirit they found a way to codify. Or, as Ricks states: “I have learned in researching this book that America is a moving target, a goal that must always be pursued but never quite reached.”

But for the countless volumes written about that generation, it’s not often that I find something new to ponder.

In First Principles we step away from the common historical storytelling, and instead focus on the educational experiences that guided public men of the era: the classics as understood and professed by academics of the Scottish enlightenment.

Ricks dives into the shared influence of Roman and Greek virtue (and some vice) on Washington, Adams, Jefferson and Madison. Without dedicating too much real estate to the events, or realpolitik, of the founding, Ricks avoids the humdrum of biographical histories. What’s more, he moves beyond the founding era to show the decline of the very classicism that shaped our earliest days. Directly, yet evenhandedly, he shows the founders falling out of sync as America expanded and came to terms with the flaws in their plan (i.e. their failure to abolish slavery).

Our founders achieved something remarkable. Durable and amendable, their experiment has set the stage for Americans to do what they do best: pursue their own happiness. Ricks reminds us though, that the founding generation can still teach us something about public virtue and the duties that should share equal prominence with the freedoms we enjoy.

There has never been a time in American politics free of division. From the outset, we’ve disagreed over the role and scope of government. There’s truly nothing new about today’s arguments. But maybe it’s time we pause to reflect on the virtues that informed our founding and our friction along the way. Who knows, we may just learn a thing or two from the likes of Cato, Cicero, and Cincinnatus.

If you think you may agree, pick up a copy of First Principles by Thomas Ricks. It’ll be worth it.

Choose Principles Over Polls

We’re about a week in to the coverage of the fall of Afghanistan to Taliban forces. If you missed my post on Tuesday, please check it out. I think you’ll understand a little more clearly the raw nature of my feelings on the topic. But let’s dig into the bigger political picture here.

Just how did we get here, and what can we expect moving forward?

From my perspective, it boils down to polling and allowing statistics to tell us the story we want to hear. A common human trait. And before anyone thinks this is going to be a hit piece on President Biden, I credit President Trump with making the same mistake and I say a pox on both their houses.

Take this observation from a recent, and decent, piece out of POLITICO:

“For months, Biden’s advisers had been downplaying the likely political impact of the U.S. exit, pointing to polls showing that voters were tired of war and just wanted to bring the troops home. And they noted that it was Biden’s predecessor, Donald Trump, who approved the peace agreement with the Taliban in his final year in office.”
Politico, “Clearly botched,” August 15, 20201

This is the danger of polling and leading by statistical analysis. No matter how good your model, there’s a shortcoming in this approach: it ignores the enormous complexity of human, and American, preference.

For instance, take a moment and imagine being asked this question: “do you believe we should end our occupation in Afghanistan and bring American troops home?” Would your answer be a bit more complicated than a simple “yes” or “no”? I’m hopeful that if you’re reading this blog regularly, you’re of the kind who would say: absolutely, it’s much more complex.

The Trump and Biden administrations, from my view, have both neglected the effect of American exceptionalism. Simply put, I believe Americans don’t want to retreat from the world stage. Yet under consecutive administrations, we’ve seen jarring examples of just that approach. From the extremes of both major party bases we see calls for isolationism (proving once again our politics are less of a spectrum and more of a circle).

Under the Trump administration, the stunning successes of trade deals like USMCA and the China Phase 1 deal were preceded by a lengthy trade war punctuated by damaging retaliatory tariffs. And while the Trump administration began its tenure with significant shows of military strength, the long term goals of the administration called for equally significant drawdowns in military missions and a cold shoulder to our NATO allies.

By contrast, Biden’s first two quarters in office will be defined first by the debacle on the ground in Afghanistan, and (a bit more quietly) his complete withdraw from international trade negotiations. That second one, though less visible, holds the potential to be even more damaging to US interests in the long term. For instance, the administration opted to allow Trade Promotion Authority to expire, crippling our ability to even approach the trade table, let alone come out ahead.

For both administrations, this lean into isolationism is dangerous – and I believe a major misreading of the American spirit.

In the modern news cycle our attention span may be short – but our cultural memory is long. We know what happens in a world where modern America takes a step back – and more than a few of us are pretty wary of those prospects. You can neither build back better, nor make America great again by refusing the role of leadership in the free world. And Americans know that.

Unfortunately, I cannot paint a rosy picture for you that we will see a shift in the approach of the administration. Even Vice President Harris, a presumed front runner for a future Democrat nomination, has remained stunningly silent over Afghanistan. We can make assumptions about the strategy here: that allowing time and distance to develop will protect the administration and down-ticket candidates in the long term. After all, most Americans don’t vote primarily based on foreign policy – we are an economy driven electorate.

I’m sure we will, in fact, be talking about something else come the election cycle of 2022, let alone 2024. I expect the trend toward isolationism to continue, despite the clamor and political fallout right now. But sadly, without an existential threat like the Soviet Union serving as a national focal point, it’s difficult for any of us to hold true to the old adage that “politics ends at the water’s edge.”

For advocates, the trend toward isolationism will continue to impact countless NGOs seeking to serve global missions, with the singular exception of those in the global climate policy space. Those seeking to advance environmental causes can reasonably expect to continue capitalizing on the moment in front of them.

I’m, as you’ve surmised by now, frustrated with the state of things. I do hope for a change in the trend line. I believe in a world where America leads actively, and by example. I believe in free trade because it mitigates conflict. I believe in a strong military because it allows us to protect the innocent regardless of national strategic benefit. And I believe in the importance of leading from principle, not the polls, because statesmanship is what our people deserve.

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